This Sunday marks the 78th annual Tony Awards, and Broadway fans, myself ncluded, are buzzing with predictions about which shows and performers will take home the coveted trophy. This season has been packed with standout productions, from original musicals to thought-provoking plays, making the competition fiercer than ever. So, once again I am sticking my neck out and offering my thoughts on this year’s race.
Best Musical
This is probably the most anticipated category every year and this year is no exception. I predict that the winner will be Maybe Happy Ending, a truly original musical about two South Korean robots learning about love and life. Its book is truly touching and the score says Broadway and Romance. It is a hit with both critics and audiences alike and I believe will be this year’s winner.
Best Play
Cole Escola’s hilarious OH, MARY was a big hit Off-Broadway and continues to be one on Broadway. In this wacky retelling of history, Mary Todd Lincoln is an alcoholic and wanna-be cabaret star who is stuck in a loveless marriage to Abraham Lincoln, who is, in this retelling, a total closet case. Critics and audiences alike have lavished praise on this farcical play for its originality and its laugh-out-loud script. So I am betting on this one to take home the Tony.
But I wouldn’t be shocked if the award went to Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ Pulitzer Prize-winning drama, Purpose, about a prominent family in Chicago. Like Oh, Mary!, it is a critical hit and getting good word of mouth from those who have seen it. If any play could sneak past Oh, Mary!, it will be Purpose..
Best Revival of a Musical
The revival of Sunset Boulevard has been turning heads, with Nicole Scherzinger delivering a powerhouse performance in a total rethinking of the musical. Gypsy is still a strong competitor with Audra McDonald’s amazing performance as Rose, but the show remains traditional in its staging. This, I believe, gives the edge to Sunset Boulevard. People’s reaction to Patti Lupone’s recent comments regarding Audra McDonald may be the one thing that could shift the focus back to Gypsy.
Best Revival of a Play
I feel this is a very close call between Jonathan Spector’s Eureka Day and David Hwang’s Yellow Face. Given the recent policies coming out of Washington, D.C., both plays are more relevant now than ever. For purely instinctual reasons, with its growing popularity, I am going with Eureka Day for this award.
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Last year’s winner for Merrily We Roll Along, Jonathan Groff, is back trying to make it two in a row with his acclaimed performance as Bobby Darin in Just In Time. Darren Criss’ emotionally-resonant performance as a robot discovering life and love in Maybe Happy Ending has been garnering kudos since the musical opened. It feels like a very close race between these two. From time to time it appears that the Tony voters seem to love giving first-time nominees the edge, I will do the same and say that Criss will grab this one. But I will not shed any tears if Groff makes it two consecutive wins.
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Audra McDonald (Gypsy) and Nicole Scherzinger (Sunset Boulevard) are neck and neck in this race, with both delivering unforgettable performances. But, since I have to pick one, I will go with the same reasoning as in the last category and give it to first-time nominee Scherzinger over six-time winner McDonald.
Best Leading Actor in a Play
This is probably the surest bet of the night. The award will go to Cole Escola for his hilarious performance as Mary Todd Lincoln in Oh, Mary! The fact that he also wrote the show doesn’t hurt.
Best Leading Actress in a {lay
Sarah Snook does the seemingly impossible in The Picture of Dorian Gray by playing every role, all twenty-six of them, in the play.
Best Supporting Actor in a Musical
This one is almost a sure thing for Jak Malone playing various roles in Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical. He has one of the best songs in the show and already won the Olivier Award in the U.K. for his roles. If anyone stands a chance of stealing the award away from Malone it would be Broadway favorite Danny Burstein who gives a tender and nuanced performance as Herbie opposite Audra McDonald in Gypsy,
Best Supporting Actress in a Musical
Giving a rousing performance in Buena Vista Social Club as Omara Portuondo, one of Cuba’s music legends, Natalie Venetia Belcon seems to be the odds-on favorite,
Best Supporting Actor in a Play
This looks like it will go to Francis Jue, for his work in Yellow Face.” Jue is a well-respected and well-liked actor among his peers and might be s much for his years in the industry as for his performance here. The only possible upset I see here might come from Conrad Ricamora, another popular stage veteran for his role as the gay-but-in-the-closet Abraham Lincoln in “Oh, Mary!,
Best Supporting Actress in a Play
This is another close race with the front runners being Jessica Hecht’s very funny performance in Eureka Day and Kara Young, last year’s winner for her very funny performance in “Purlie Victorious” in a scene-stealing role in “Purpose.” I had to flip a coin on this one and it came up with Kara Young taking home her second Tony in as many years. But don’t be surprised if Jessica Hecht turns out to be the winner.
Other Thoughts
I think that Miriam Buether and 59 will win Best Set Design for Stranger Things: The First Shadow and the show will likely pick up several other awards in the tech areas (Lighting, Sound, etc.), plus it will receive a special award for its amazing stage effects.
And speaking of dazzling technical effects, I believe that the Tony for Scenic Design of a Musical will go to Maybe Happy Ending for its creative use of contemporary stagecraft.
Best Costume Design of a Musical
The kitsch and clever costumes for Death Becomes Her, designed by Paul Tazewell, bring the glitz and glamour of Hollywood to the stage. Despite its strong reviews and audience popularity, out of its 10 nominations, this may be the only Tony the show will win. Having said all that, there is a chance, however, that Gregg Barnes’ imaginative costumes for BOOP! (like the Act 2 number where the characters go from color to black & white) may sneak in to steal the award.
Best Score to a Musical
This should be another of the multiple wins for MAYBE HAPPY ENDING thanks to its melodic mix of love and Broadway!
Best Book of a Musical
Again, another notch in MAYBE HAPPY ENDING’s belt. If I am at all on target, this show should be the evening’s big winner!
Best Choreography
This was another tricky category to narrow down to a likely winner. Christopher Gattelli’s choreography for Death Becomes Her ranges in style from seductive to brash yet all feel appropriate to the situation in which they occur. Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck beautifully convey the sultry body moves to go along with the wonderful Cuban music being played in “Buena Vista Social Club.” But for its sheer creativity and originality, I have to go with Jerry Mitchell’s work on Boop! The Musical. If he does win, it will most likely be the only Tony won by BOOP! The Musical
Best Direction of a Play
With its total commitment to the insane premise and plot, I am giving this one to Sam Pinkleton for “Oh, Mary!”
Best Direction of a Musical
This year’s power musical seems to be Maybe Happy Ending and I think the winning streak will extend to the Best Director category. Therefore, I believe that the Tony will go to Michael Arden for his work on this wonderful musical. The only upset here might be from Jamie Lloyd, whose extensive re-imagining of Sunset Boulevard might swing the Tony voters in his direction (pardon the pun.)
Well, those are the awards most people care about. You now know what I think and I am sure you have some different opinions as to who the winners will be. We will not have long to wait to see the actual results, as the Tony Awards are going to be televised Sunday, June 8, 2025 in two parts. Part One, the more technical awards, will be seen on Pluto TV from 3:40–5 pm Pacific. The main show will air live from 5–8 pm Pacific on CBS and repeat from 8-11 pm. The show will also be available to stream on Paramount+