This theatre season had a slow start but a rapid-fire ending as shows scrambled to open during the last few weeks in order to qualify for this year’s Tony Award. Below are my predictions for the top awards. Last year, I amazed even myself by predicting all but two awards successfully. It’s a high bar that has been set but let’s give it a go…
BEST NEW MUSICAL
The 5 nominees are: “Hell’s Kitchen,” “Illinoise,” “The Outsiders,” “Suffs,” and “Water for Elephants.”
There has been high critical praise for all these shows but for many reasons, including wanting to appear in touch with the times, I think the Tony voters will go for “Suffs,” the musical about the Suffragettes and their role in getting women the right to vote. The show had undergone major changes in transferring from Off-Broadway to the Great White Way and received mostly strong positive reviews for the effort. But there is a chance that the voters may rally behind the energy of “Hell’s Kitchen,” the Alicia Keyes musical roughly based on her life and featuring a score comprised of her songs.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
The four nominees are: “Cabaret,” “Guttenberg,” “Merrily We Roll Along,” and “Tommy.”
As much fun as it was to see Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells paired up again in the silly musical “Guttenberg,” with its Phoenix-like resurrection from legendary flop to monster hit, I believe that “Merrily…” will grab this award. It’s also a way for the voters to give posthumous validation to the musical which caused one of roughest spots in Stephen Sondheim’s career It also speaks to the strong performances of the show’s three leads…. Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, and Daniel Radcliffe.
BEST NEW PLAY
The five nominees are: “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding,” “Mary Jane,” “Mother Play,” “Prayer for the French Republic,” and “Stereophonic.”
All five nominees are deserving of the critical praise each received. Of these, however, I believe that David Adjmi’s “Stereophonic,” about a rock band in the 70’s trying to record an album while dealing with personal and professional problems, seems to have developed a lead over the other four. I will be truly surprised if it doesn’t win.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
The three nominees are: “Appropriate,” “An Enemy of the People,” and “Purlie Victorious.”
This is another award that I am fairly certain of which will win and I cast my vote for Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’ “Appropriate.” Dealing with white privilege, slavery and racism, this decade old play feels even more relevant than it did when it was first produced.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Eden Espinosa (“Lempicka”), Maleah Joi Moon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Kelli O’Hara (“Days of Wine and Roses”), Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”) and Gayle Rankin (“Cabaret”).
This is a tough one to call. For me, this is a two-horse race between Kelli O’Hara and Maleah Joi Moon. Ms. O’Hara has been established as a solid performer and award winner. However, Ms.Joi Moon delivers a star-making turn in “Hell’s Kitchen.” Since awards always love those “A Star Is Born” moments, I’m going to give this one to Maleah Joi Moon.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Betsy Aidem (“Prayer for the French Republic”), Jessica Lange (“Mother Play”), Rachel McAdams (“Mary Jane”), Sarah Paulson (“Appropriate”), and Amy Ryan (“Doubt”).
These are 5 prime examples of what it means to be an actress at the top of her game. Cutting right to the chase, I think this one belongs to Sarah Paulson. Currently known for her award winning TV work, she began her career onstage and has returned with a virtuoso of a performance. Welcome home Sarah and here’s your Tony Award.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Brody Grant (“The Outsiders”), Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Dorian Harewood (“The Notebook”), Brian d’Arcy James (“Days of Wine and Roses”), and Eddie Redmayne (“Cabaret”).
Assuming my belief that “MERRILY…” will be a juggernaut making multiple nominees winners, then it’s Jonathan Groff who will be taking home a Tony as best actor in a musical.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEAD ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are William Jackson Harper (“Uncle Vanya”), Leslie Odom Jr. (“Purlie Victorious”), Liev Schreiber (“Doubt”), Jeremy Strong (“An Enemy of the People”), and Michael Stuhlbarg (“Patriots”).
Despite the early closing for the revival of “Purlie Victorious,” I believe that Leslie Odom Jr.’s performance as Purlie was thrilling enough to propel him right into the role of Tony winner!
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The seven nominees are Shoshana Bean (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Amber Iman (“Lempicka”), Nikki M. James (“Suffs”), Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (“Spamalot”), Kecia Lewis (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Lindsay Mendez (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Bebe Neuwirth (“Cabaret”).
Bebe Neuwirth’s very touching performance as an older woman caught between personal happiness and the Nazi regime may be just strong enough to cause an upset here. But if that isn’t the case, then the “Merrily….” juggernaut will continue, bringing Lindsay Mendez the Tony for her performance as one of the three “old friends” in “Merrily We Roll Along.”
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Quincy Tyler Bernstine (“Doubt”), Juliana Canfield (“Stereophonic”), Celia Keenan-Bolger (“Mother Play”), Sarah Pidgeon (“Stereophonic”), and Kara Young (“Purlie Victorious”).
Despite having been in a show that has already closed, there are those performances that are so good they linger in the mind. Such is the case with Kara Young’s portrayal of Lutiebelle in “Purlie Victorious.” She has already won the Outer Critics Circle Award and I believe she will win the Tony as well.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
The six nominees are Roger Bart (“Back to the Future”), Joshua Boone (“The Outsiders”), Brandon Victor Dixon (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Sky Lakota-Lynch (“The Outsiders”), Daniel Radcliffe (“Merrily We Roll Along”), and Steven Skybell (“Cabaret”).
Once again, the “Merrily…” juggernaut will bring the Tony Award to Daniel Radcliffe for his sensitive and nuanced performance as Charlie, Franklin’s lyricist and “old friend.”
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
The five nominees are Will Brill (“Stereophonic”), Eli Gelb (“Stereophonic”), Jim Parsons (“Mother Play”), Tom Pecinka (“Stereophonic”), and Corey Stoll (“Appropriate”).
As good as the performances are in “Stereophonic,” I think they will cancel each other out leaving Cory Stoll the winner for his excellent performance in “Appropriate.”
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
The five nominees are Maria Friedman (“Merrily We Roll Along”), Michael Greif (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Leigh Silverman (“Suffs”), Jessica Stone (“Water for Elephants”), and Danya Taymor (“The Outsiders”).
This one is too easy to guess…..Her reimagining of a classic flop has made a mega-hit out of “Merrily We Roll Along” and will give Maria Friedman a well-deserved Tony.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
The five nominees are Annie-B Parson (“Here Lies Love”), Camille A. Brown (“Hell’s Kitchen”), Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman (“The Outsiders”), Justin Peck (“Illinoise”), and Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll (“Water for Elephants”).
This is another category where all 5 people’s work is of an award-winning level. Having said that, there are two whose work is just a little bit ahead of the rest. Camille A. Brown’s exuberant choreography for “Hell’s Kitchen,” gives a jolt of energy to the show with every step performed by the show’s amazing dancers. But I am predicting that the Tony will go to Justin Peck, whose choreography tells as much of the story as any line spoken or lyric sung. It also doesn’t hurt that he was also the book writer and director. If Camille A. Brown sneaks in there with the win, I won’t be disappointed but I think the Tony will go to Justin Peck’s work on “Illinoise.”
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
The five nominees are Daniel Aukin (“Stereophonic”), Anne Kauffman (“Mary Jane”), Kenny Leon (”Purlie Victorious”), Lila Neugebauer (“Appropriate”), and Whitney White (“Jaja’s African Hair Braiding”).
For my money, “Stereophonic” is such a strong ensemble piece that never gets bogged down with technical details nor lets the pace lag as it surfs through its various plotlines. So, I am putting my money on Daniel Aukin’s work on “Stereophonic.”
So there they are…..my predictions for the top awards of the 2023-2024 season. Will I come close to last year’s correct picks? We’ll find out. But right or wrong, it was a fascinating season filled with strong competition from the amazing work created by all of this year’s nominees. The TONY AWARDS air this Sunday, June 16th on CBS.
